This paper examines the information content of inflation forecasts derived using index-linked and conventional bonds …. The paper finds that the derived inflation term structure (ITS) gives a somewhat better indication of the bond market …'s inflation expectation than can be derived using either the nominal term structure or a variant employing strong assumptions …

This paper seeks to clarify the ways in which inflation targeting corresponds to a policy rule conceptually, and to … assess the extent to which inflation targeters' policy can be described by policy rules in practice. Using central banks …' inflation and output forecasts, the empirical analysis shows that simple forward-looking instrument rules provide a reasonably …

) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally …This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies … that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1 …