Over the past two decades, respondents to the Shiller Investor Confidence Surveys assess the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash to be much higher that the historical frequency of such events. We decompose these crash probabilities into fundamental and subjective components and use...

In the summer of 2007, the subprime empire that Wall Street had built all came crashing down. Banks like Countrywide and non-banks such as New Century Financial--all financed by Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers and others--were in danger of closing, or actually...