Are empirical measures of uncertainty informative about risks to future economic activity? I use quantile regression analysis and density predictions on United States data to show that the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and future GDP growth is nonlinear and asymmtric. The left...

This paper highlights the role of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty in predicting US recessions. In-sample forecasts using probit models indicate that these two variables are the best predictors of recessions at short horizons. Macroeconomic uncertainty has the highest predictive power up...

This paper proposes a new way of displaying and analyzing macroeconomic time series to form recession forecasts. The proposed data displays contain the last three years of each expansion. These allow observers to see for themselves what is different about the last year before recession. Based on...