This paper compares different forecasting approaches for the Argentine monetary aggregate M2, which is a key variable for monetary policy. First, we estimate a conditional equilibrium-correction model of money demand, which is theory consistent and accounts for the main features of the data....

A widely applied approach to measure the size of the shadow economy, known as the "monetary method" or the "currency approach," is based on econometric estimates of the demand for money. These estimates are used to get the currency held by economic agents in excess of the amount they need to...

We show that when the money demand function used to estimate the size of the shadow economy includes the lagged dependent variable, the need to assume a known initial condition reappears as it was the case in the early monetary methods.

A commonly used approach to measure the size of the shadow economy, known as "the monetary method", is based on econometric estimates of the demand for currency. These estimates are used to get the currency held by economic agents in excess of the amount they need to finance registered...