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Survey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models

Bhandari, Anmol - 2019

This paper develops a theory of subjective beliefs that departs from rational expectations, and shows that biases in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012903429

Behavioral & Experimental Macroeconomics and Policy Analysis : A Complex Systems Approach

Hommes, Cars H. - 2018

This survey discusses behavioral and experimental macroeconomics emphasizing a complex systems perspective. The economy consists of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents who do not fully understand their complex environment and use simple decision heuristics. Central to our survey is the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012907638

Unbiased Expectations and Hayek’s Business Cycle Theory

Bilo, Simon - 2019

Hayek's business cycle theory does not depend on its traditional assumption of systematic predictive errors. To the … contrary, the theory is also consistent with unbiased expectations where some people overestimate and others underestimate the …, the theory predicts a cluster of observable errors and replicates the important features of Hayek's canonical version of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859394

Survey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models

Bhandari, Anmol - 2019

This paper develops a theory of subjective beliefs that departs from rational expectations, and shows that biases in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860805

Recoverability and expectations-driven fluctuations

Chahrour, Ryan; Jurado, Kyle - In: The review of economic studies : RES 89 (2022) 1, pp. 214-239

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799324

Opening the black box of investment expectations : an empirical inquiry into animal spirits

Lainé, Michael - In: Journal of Post Keynesian economics 44 (2021) 3, pp. 411-433

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012623673

Heterogeneous expectations, indeterminacy, and postwar US business cycles

Ilabaca, Francisco; Milani, Fabio - In: Journal of macroeconomics 68 (2021), pp. 1-16

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012630988

A new look into fiscal countercyclicality : expectations, shocks, and the business cycle

Jalles, João Tovar - In: FinanzArchiv : European journal of public finance 76 (2020) 3, pp. 240-265

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012602329

Behavioral expectation formation and the knife-edge : another look at Harrod

Radzicki, Michael J. - In: Feedback economics : economic modeling with system dynamics, (pp. 467-493). 2021

One of the many interesting controversies in economics concerns Harrod's "knife-edge" or Harrod's "razor’s edge". In 1939, Sir Roy Harrod published a paper in which he presented a dynamic macroeconomic model that appeared to have an unstable golden age growth path. If an external shock knocks...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012604507

Growth Cycles

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo; Romer, Paul M. - 2021

We construct a rational expectations model in which aggregate growth alternates between a low growth and a high growth state. When all agents expect growth to be slow, the returns on investment are low, and little investment takes place. This slows growth and confirms the prediction that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222964