We find that 30-minute changes in bond yields around scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements are predictable with the pre-FOMC Blue Chip professionals’ revisions in GDP growth forecasts. A positive pre-FOMC GDP growth revision predicts a contractionary policy news shock...

In recent years, central banks have increasingly turned to "forward guidance" as a central tool of monetary policy, especially as interest rates around the world have hit the zero lower bound. Standard monetary models imply that far future forward guidance is extremely powerful: promises about...