The aim of this study is to test the ability of the yield curve on US government bonds to forecast the future evolution … ability to forecast future performance changes over time. Specifically, between 1986 and the early 2000s the yield curve was …

, nickel, tin, and zinc). The model suite adapts six approaches used in the literature and tests their forecast performance … lies in generating forecast scenarios. The sizable forecast error bands generated by the model suite highlight the need for …