not the case. Although unemployment is low, the labor market is not 'tight'. On the contrary, we show that what matters …

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to … panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected … just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead. We do so using individuals …

their unemployment rate rose less than the one of prime-age workers. This view is a myth: older workers are more sensitive …

distinguishing job-to-job, job-to-unemployment, and other transitions. We find that job-to-job transitions are pro-cyclical, while … unemployment transitions are counter-cyclical. Individuals most affected by the economic crisis tend to be young males, living in … regions with high unemployment rates, with low qualifications and working in manual occupations (particularly construction …