We examine the relationship between inflation uncertainty, inflation and growth using annual historical data on industrial countries covering in many cases more than one century. Proxying inflation uncertainty by the conditional variance of inflation shocks, we obtain the following results. (1)...

We use univariate GARCH models of inflation and output growth and monthly data on inflation and output growth in the G7 for the 1960-2000 period to examine all possible causal relationships between inflation, output growth, real, and nominal uncertainty, and hence test for a number of economic...

Using a long series of UK inflation data, I have provided strong evidence in favour of the hypothesis that inflationary periods are associated with high inflation uncertainty. This result supports the Friedman-Ball hypothesis and has important implications for the inflation-output relationship...

We argue that the interactions among the current account and budget balances and the real interest rate can provide more information about the effective degree of financial openness of an economy than simple saving-investment correlations. Cointegration tests reveal a variety of linkages between...

We examine the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty using a GARCH model that allows for simultaneous feedback between the conditional mean and variance of inflation. We also derive a number of theoretical econometric results and illustrate the relevance of these results with...

We use a long series of annual data that span over 100 years to examine the relationship between output growth and output growth uncertainty in five European countries. Using the GARCH methodology to proxy output growth uncertainty, we obtain two important results: First, more uncertainty about...

By utilizing the techniques of multivariate cointegration and error correction models, we investigate the impact of the different exchange-rate regimes that spanned the 20th century on the bilateral exports between the UK and the US over the last 98 years. Our results support two conclusions....

There has recently been considerable interest in the potential adverse effects associated with excessive uncertainty in energy futures markets. Theoretical models of investment under uncertainty predict that increased uncertainty will tend to induce firms to delay investment. These models are...

We use a cross-section, time-series approach to study the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the European Union (EU) with particular emphasis on the expectations of a single market following the Single European Act of 1987. Using annual data from the 1980s and early 1990s, we...