Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be...

If there is valuable information for predicting bond prices over time, how can we use this information to improve investor's risk-return trade-off and term structure modelling? This thesis aims at answering this question. The first chapter discusses the predictive role of alternative measures of...