This paper presents a weekly GDP indicator for Switzerland, which addresses the limitations of existing economic activity indicators using alternative high-frequency data created in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The indicator is obtained from a Bayesian mixed-frequency dynamic factor model...

We propose a simple modification of Hamilton’s (2018) time series filter that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8 quarter ahead forecast errors of a simple autoregression of real GDP. While this approach yields a cyclical...

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION TO MODERN MAINSTREAM MACROECONOMIC THOUGHT VERSUS KEYNES’ VIEWS ON RECOVERIES FROM RECESSIONS -- CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW OF MAJOR SCHOOLS OF MACROECONOMIC THOUGHT AND EMPIRICAL WORK -- CHAPTER 3: RESULTS FROM ESTIMATING AND PROJECTING TRENDS FOR RECENT RECESSIONS...

In his celebrated 1966 Econometrica article, Granger first hypothesized that there is a ‘typical’ spectral shape for an economic variable. This ‘typical’ shape implies decreasing levels of energy as frequency increases, which in turn implies an extremely long cycle in economic...