Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country fixed effects are added to panel … estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries - Austria; Belgium …; Bulgaria; Croatia; Cyprus; Czechia; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; France; Germany; Greece; Hungary; Ireland; Italy; Latvia …

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to … panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected … just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead. We do so using individuals …

monetary policy. It covers several major macro-economic quantities, including unemployment rate, GDP, and weekly payrolls in … natural rate of unemployment and GDP growth comes out of the model naturally. An optimization framework is proposed to … first-order analytic solution is derived. We find that FED's interest rate policy has leaned heavily on the unemployment …

We propose a unique method of nowcasting and forecasting GDP growth based on a forward-looking measure of unemployment …