Peláez, Rolando F. - In: Empirical Economics 28 (2003) 2, pp. 417-429
This paper provides the strongest evidence to-date on the predictability of real stock prices over long horizons. Ex ante forecasts account for over two-thirds of the variation of the growth rate of real stock prices over ten year spans from 1940 through 2001. The paper forecasts negative growth...
