State governments creating their budgets are concerned about available revenues. The basis of a successful budget is a sound revenue forecast. How states arrive at this forecast is both a science and an art and the approach differs markedly among states. This policy brief responds to the dearth...

State revenue forecasts are a subject of seemingly constant critique from politicians, the media, and the academy over the nature of their outcomes as measured by the ability to accurately predict available resources. The opportunity to introduce political biases into the revenue baseline,...

This paper reviews the practice and performance of revenue forecasting in selected OECD countries. While the mean forecast errors are small in most countries, the precision of the forecasts measured by the standard deviation of the forecast error differs substantially across countries. Based on...

In recent years, government revenues in many EU countries experienced significant and erratic changes, which, a priori, could not be fully explained by macroeconomic developments or by discretionary fiscal policy measures. We investigate this issue by estimating “unexplained” changes in tax...

In this paper, the accuracy of revenue forecasting in Turkey is examined during the period 1981 -2000. Previous studies focused on forecasting have mostly studied to find out how to make accurate forecasting. Forecasters' intentions and the degree of their achievement towards accuracy are...

Budget revenue forecasts should be best estimates of expected receipts. Often they are not. This paper analyzes the rationale for overstated revenue forecasts and derives conditions for intentional biases. A theoretical model demonstrates that overstated revenue forecasts can be the result of...

In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions and false predictions of the elasticities linking the tax base to its corresponding tax type. Across six tax types and the overall tax sum for Germany, we find a heterogeneous...

Accurate revenue prediction is a key factor for the reliable determination of the investment part of entire regional and local budgets, particularly during economic downturns and fiscal uncertainty. An unexpected decline in revenue requires the reduction in capital expenditures and forces the...