We forecast New York state tax revenues with a mixed-frequency model using a number of machine learning techniques. We found boosting with two dynamic factors extracted from a select list of New York and U.S. leading indicators did best in terms of correctly updating revenues for the fiscal year...

In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions and false predictions of the elasticities linking the tax base to its corresponding tax type. Across six tax types and the overall tax sum for Germany, we find a heterogeneous...

Critics of Governor Michael Dukakis have suggested that this year?s $400 million overestimate of tax revenues in Massachusetts casts doubt on his putative managerial skills. In this paper, we carefully examine the entire Dukakis forecasting record. We find that the 1988 experience was "unusual?...

The forecast of public revenue is a key part in the budget process, becoming an instrument that supports public managers for making decisions regarding an appropriate budget execution. This research aims to determine the effectiveness of the Koyck model in predicting public revenues of the most...

This paper takes stock of revenue forecasting practices in low-income countries, and provides a comprehensive and condensed account of the revenue forecasting process. Based on a new dataset on 34 low-income countries, it catalogues forecasting practices and procedures from inception until...

1. Introduction- Daniel W. Williams and Thad Calabrese -- Part I: International and National -- 2. Macroeconomic Theory & Forecasting- Gerald D. Cohen -- 3. Evaluation of Budget Forecasts- Neil R. Ericcson and Andrew B. Martinez -- 4. Budget Preparation and Forecasting in the Federal Republic of...