We use TVP models and real-time data to describe the evolution of the leading properties of the yield spread for output growth in five European economies and in the US over the last decades and until the third quarter of 2010. We evaluate the predictive performance of benchmark term-structure...

The sharp decline in economic activity registered in Spain over 2008 and 2009 has no precedents in recent history. After ten prosperous years with an average GDP growth of 3.7%, the current recession places non-judgemental forecasting models under stress. This paper evaluates the Spanish GDP...

In this paper we present a Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy System (ANFIS) with inputs the lagged dependent variable for the prediction of Gross domestic Product growth rate in six countries.We compare the results with those of Autoregressive (AR) model. We conclude that the forecasting performance of...