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Professional Forecasters and the Real-time Forecasting Performance of an Estimated New Keynesian Model for the Euro Area

Smets, Frank - 2013

This paper analyses the real-time forecasting performance of the New Keynesian DSGE model of Galí, Smets, and Wouters (2012) estimated on euro area data. It investigates to what extent forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by professional forecasters improve the forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078530

Does Disagreement Among Oil Price Forecasters Reflect Volatility? Evidence from the ECB Surveys

Atalla, Tarek - 2014

find statistical evidence at short forecast horizons that oil price volatility observed ex post explains ex … absolute forecast errors is positively related to the log of the dispersion around the survey mean (or median) for the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055278

Forecast Performance in the ECB SPF : Ability or Chance?

Meyler, Aidan - 2020

In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or … horizons, the aggregate (consensus) SPF forecast performs best …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842351

Forecasting Inflation in the Euro Area : Countries Matter!

Capolongo, Angela - 2019

We construct a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with three layers of information: the key drivers of inflation, cross-country dynamic interactions, and country-specific variables. The model provides good forecasting accuracy with respect to the popular benchmarks used in the literature. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864912

Forecasting inflation in the euro area : countries matter!

Capolongo, Angela; Pacella, Claudia - In: Empirical economics : a quarterly journal of the … 61 (2021) 5, pp. 2477-2499

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012664589

How Informative are Aggregated Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Oinonen, Sami - 2017

compare two sub-groups of survey respondents divided on the basis of forecast accuracy. Then, we examine possible differences … between regular and irregular forecasters. Finally, we assess the relevance of aggregated forecast revisions in the unbalanced … panel by constructing alternative forecast revisions based on the set of sub-panels of fixed composition. The results show …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012969207

Archival Data of Financial Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts in the Euro Zone : Problems With Euro Conversions

Galanti, Sébastien - 2018

, although they are supposed to be displayed in euros, which can severely distort results concerning earnings forecast accuracy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012925798

Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area using predictive combinations of DSGE models

Čapek, Jan; Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús; Hauzenberger, Niko; … - 2020

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012424475

The effect of the ECB's forward guidance on interest rate forecasts

Fendel, Ralf; Heins, Jan; Mohr, Oliver - In: International journal of economics and finance 12 (2020) 8, pp. 52-64

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012425923

Weigh(t)ing the basket : aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area

Chalmovianský, Jakub; Porqueddu, Mario; Sokol, Andrej - 2020

We compare direct forecasts of HICP and HICP excluding energy and food in the euro area and five member countries to aggregated forecasts of their main components from large Bayesian VARs with a shared set of predictors. We focus on conditional point and density forecasts, in line with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012384462