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We study the impact of model disagreement on the dynamics of asset prices, return volatility, and trade in the market … disagree about the length of the business cycle. We show that model disagreement amplifies return volatility and trading volume …, we find that while the absolute level of return volatility is driven by long-run risk, the variation and persistence of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458474
Financial volatility obeys two fascinating empirical regularities that apply to various assets, on various markets, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012173087
It is generally believed that excessive stock market volatility reflects non-mathematical market expectations that are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012862894
, return volatility, and trading volume in the mortgage-backed security market. We find that increased disagreement is … associated with higher expected returns, higher return volatility, and larger trading volume. These results imply that there is a … positive risk premium for disagreement in asset prices. We also show that volatility in and of itself does not lead to higher …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460041
This paper aims at decomposing the forecast error variance of excess returns in five major European stock markets into the variance of news about future excess returns, dividends and real interest rates. Special emphasis is given on the issue of stationarity and structural breaks in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236921
Stock prices aggregate the beliefs of different investors. Using this insight, we estimate the fraction of stock market investors holding survey beliefs. We find that 42% of investors hold beliefs matching those of equity analysts and 25% hold beliefs as observed in individual investor return...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014238395
stochastic volatility of asset prices and to give theoretical arguments for empirically well documented facts. We show that … stochastic volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013428399
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013455191
volatility. These implied volatilities differ from the VIX which measures uncertainty about stock prices, not only uncertainty … the volatility of near-future dividends that lingers even as the volatility of the overall market portfolio has started to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014351923
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014438439