The output gap is of central interest to policymakers. Being unobservable, however, its estimation is prone to error, particularly in real time. Errors result from revisions to the data and unavoidable end-point problems associated with the econometric techniques used to estimate it. This is the...

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It is often argued that the United States cannot continue for long to run current account deficits of their current size of 5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This article questions this conventional wisdom by examining the implications were the United States to continue to run current...

This article examines Treasury's macroeconomic forecasting performance over the period from 1989-90 to 2003-04, with a focus on forecasts of nominal and real GDP, the GDP deflator, the unemployment rate, and CPI inflation.