The present study investigates whether Hong Kong's volatile real estate market is consistent with a non-linear consumption-based-asset-pricing model. It finds that the asset-pricing model is not rejected for some types of properties. However, the differentials between the returns to residential...

Inflation uncertainty is shown to have highly significant negative correlations with real activities if the uncertainty is measured by a state-dependent conditional variance model. The results are consistent with those obtained from survey data and cross-country data.

The costs of state and local pension plans have been a source of fiscal stress in many states and communities. This has led legislatures to consider major changes in these plans. In order to assess the fiscal and staffing consequences of plan changes it is important to develop reliable...

Educators in public schools in the United States are typically enrolled in defined-benefit pension plans, which penalize across-plan mobility. We use administrative data from Missouri to examine how the mobility penalties affect the labor market for school leaders. We show that pension borders...

Educators in public schools in the United States are typically enrolled in defined-benefit pension plans, which penalize across-plan mobility. We use administrative data from Missouri to examine how the mobility penalties affect the labor market for school leaders. We show that pension borders...

We present a model in which investors observe the same macroeconomic data but have varying levels of information about the parameters that determine the distribution of the expected returns on investment. During a crisis that increases macroeconomic uncertainty and reduces asset prices, the...

The price-to-rent ratio, a common yardstick for the value of housing, is difficult to estimate when rental properties are poor substitutes of owner-occupied homes. In this study we estimate price-to-rent ratios of residential properties in two major cities in China, where urban high-rises...

We examine how future real GDP growth relates to changes in the forecasted long-term average of discounted real oil prices and to changes in unanticipated fluctuations of real oil prices around the forecasts. Forecasts are conducted using a state-space oil market model, in which global real...

Despite their declining presence in the private sector, defined benefit (DB) pension plans still cover most public-sector workers. A distinguishing feature of these plans is that they impose severe penalties on worker mobility. We use administrative panel data from the largest public-sector...