This paper examines the expectations behavior of individual responses in the surveys of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center. The paper finds that respondents consistently revise their forecasts of inflation, unemployment, and other key...

This paper examines the implications of changing the expectations assumption that is embedded in nearly all current macroeconomic models. The paper substitutes measured or "real" expectations for rational expectations in an array of standard macroeconomic relationships, as well as in a DSGE...

In the now conventional view of the inflation process, the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) captures most of the persistence in inflation. The sources of persistence are twofold. First, the "driving process" for inflation-the output gap or, more commonly, real marginal cost-is itself quite...

This paper examines the expectations behavior of individual responses in the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center survey of consumers, and the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. It finds that the most robust feature of all of these...