This paper shows the extraordinary capacity of yield spreads to anticipate consumption growth as proxy by the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission in order to predict turning points in business cycles. This new evidence complements the well known results regarding...

This paper tests the effectiveness of contingent immunization, a stop loss strategy that allows portfolio managers to take advantage of their ability to forecast interest rate movements as long as their forecasts are successful, but switches to a pure immunization strategy should the stop loss...

In this paper we proceed to estimate a measure of the flow-through capability of the firms listed on the Spanish Stock Exchange. The flow-through capability is defined as the ability of firms to transmit inflation shocks to the prices of the products and services sold by the company. According...

"According to""Harvey (1988)"", the forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is due to the fact that interest rates reflect investors' expectations about the future economic situation when deciding their plans for consumption and investment. Past literature has used ex post data...