In economics, common factors are often assumed to underlie the co-movements of a set of macroeconomic variables. For this reason, many authors have used estimated factors in the construction of prediction models. In this paper, we begin by surveying the extant literature on diffusion indexes. We...

We review and construct consistent in-sample specification and out-of-sample model selection tests on conditional distributions and predictive densities associated with continuous multifactor (possibly with jumps) and (non)linear discrete models of the short term interest rate. The results of...

We apply farsighted stable set to two versions of Hotelling's location games: one with linear market and another with circular market. It is shown that there always exists a farsighted stable set in both games. In particular, the set of all location profiles that yields equal payoff across all...

Adam Smith and Milton Friedman are famous for championing Laissez Faire, yet both supported government regulation of the banking system. In both cases their deviation from free market orthodoxy was based on a careful reading of financial history: especially Smith's reading of the Crisis of 1772...

We test the assumption that preferences are unchanged throughout a strategic game in the absence of feedback. To do so, we study the relationship between the strategic nature of a game and players' identification in social groups. We present evidence that the strategic nature of the game affects...

Diffusion index models have received considerable attention from both theoreticians and empirical econometricians in recent years. One reason for this is that datasets with many variables are increasingly becoming available and being utilized for economic modelling, and another is that common...

This paper introduces heterogeneous households into an otherwise standard sticky-price model with industry-specific labor markets. Households differ in labor incomes and asset markets are incomplete. I show that household heterogeneity affects equilibrium dynamics nontrivially by amplifying...

In this paper, we empirically assess the predictive accuracy of a large group of models based on the use of principle components and other shrinkage methods, including Bayesian model averaging and various bagging, boosting, LASSO and related methods Our results suggest that model averaging does...

This paper gives a test of overidentifying restrictions that is robust to many instruments and heteroskedasticity. It is based on a jackknife version of the Sargan test statistic, having a numerator that is the objective function minimized by the JIVE2 estimator of Angrist, Imbens, and Krueger...

Pre-electoral coalitions occur frequently in parliamentary democracies. They influence post election coalition formation and surplus division. We study a game theoretic model where political parties can form coalitions both before (ex ante) and after (ex post) the elections. Ex ante coalitions...