The model proposed by Nelson and Siegel (1987) has been used for several researcher to fit the yield curve. In this paper we propose a discrete-time version of that model by using dynamic factors, such that the model is dynamic in the sense proposed by Diebold and Li (2006). We found the exact...

Bond market acts as buffer of equity market. This market in Bangladesh has been found very inefficient with respect to number of issues, volume of trade, number of participant, long-term yield curve, interest rate policy etc. In view of this, the present study has been undertaken aiming at...

The paper is aimed at making comparative analysis of main market risk features based on the copula-modeling and on the traditional approach which neglects the asymmetry and the fat tails of interest rates joint multivariate distribution. R software is used for practical implementation of the...

Several authors have proposed to combine movements in princi- pal components to generate scenarios of "large" historical changes in term structures, i.e. stress-scenarios. This approach, however, has at least two shortcommings. This paper answers at these two problems and proposes a general...

Traditional …financial theory predicts that comovement in asset returns is due to fundamentals. An alternative view is that of Barberis and Shleifer (2003) and Bar- beris, Shleifer and Wurgler (2005) who propose a sentiment based theory of comovement, delinking it from fundamentals. In their...

This paper proposes a new structural-break vector autoregressive (VAR) model for predicting real output growth by the nominal yield curve information. We allow for the possibility of both in-sample and out-of-sample breaks in parameter values and use information in historical regimes to make...

This paper presents a dynamic equilibrium model of bond markets in which two groups of agents hold heterogeneous expectations about future economic conditions. The heterogeneous expectations cause agents to take speculative positions against each other and therefore generate endogenous relative...

We analyse the emerging Serbian bond market to compare its behaviour to developed markets and to indicate what is behind bond market emergence. As an analytical tool we model the term structure of the bond market. We find that a modified standard model performs rather well in the environment of...

Previous macro-finance term structure models (MTSMs) imply that macroeconomic state variables are spanned by (i.e., perfectly correlated with) model-implied bond yields. However, this theoretical implication appears inconsistent with regressions showing that much macroeconomic variation is...