This paper employs the Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) structural break methodology to investigate whether the CAPM betas for banking sector stocks are time invariant. I find evidence for three large structural shifts in my monthly (1941.02–2008.01) sample. The third break corresponds with a...

We estimate a time series model of voter turnout for 34 US presidential elections, 1880--2012. Employing a variety of econometric techniques, our major results are as follows. (1) A negative and significant structural shift in voter turnout occurs in 1972 and is too large to be explained by the...

Utlizing Johansen's (1988) multivariate cointegration testing procedure, we find a cointegrating vector between the outputs of five major industrialized nations for the fixed exchange rate period. However, this relationship breaks down for the flexible exchange rate era. We argue that the...

This paper develops and empirically supports, using 3 and 6 month interest rates, a theory that political risk can explain the shifting term premia found in U.S. data. We find that incorporating these political regime shifts yield results that support the expectations hypothesis.

The effect of changes in policy regimes on real interest rates has important implications for financial and economic theory. There is little current evidence that policy regime changes have any impact on the level of real interest rates. We use large political changes as our measure of policy...

We develop a positive political model of the U.S. Supreme Court. Looking at the Court's economic cases for the period 1953–1993, we find a significant larger fraction of conservative decisions under Republican presidents and more conservative leadership of the House and Senate Judiciary...

<Para ID="Par1">Empirically estimating managerial performance is often quite challenging. Without accurate measurement of managerial output or value added it is difficult to usefully analyze the labor market for managers. This paper uses shot selection between two-point and three-point shots to develop a...</para>

We find a negative and significant relationship between gubernatorial turnover and U.S. state economic growth. Although our finding of an inverse relationship between growth and political instability may seem to contradict Olson's (1982a) famous hypothesis regarding the growth retarding nature...