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We examine the characteristics and comovement of cycles in house prices, credit, real activity and interest rates in … advanced economies during the past 25 years, using a dynamic generalized factor model. House price cycles generally lead credit …, while the U.S. credit cycle leads mainly over the long term …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155281
We relax the perfect information assumption in a small open economy with collateral constraints. Under such a condition, households observe income growth but do not perceive whether the underlying shocks are permanent or transitory. Further, the likelihood and severity of financial crises are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834481
This paper is a theoretical study into how credit constraints interact with aggregate economic activity over the … not only factors of production, but they also serve as collateral for loans. Borrowers' credit limits are affected by the … prices of the collateralized assets. And at the same time, these prices are affected by the size of the credit limits. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774940
competitive credit market only after good shocks. This prediction is shown to be consistent with data on emerging market economies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012775497
We assess the role of external debt in shaping the dynamics of domestic credit cycles. Using quarterly data for 40 … maturity. We show that the first two dimensions provide valuable information about the likelihood of credit booms and busts. In … credit booms. Our results also reveal that credit busts tend to be associated with a lower share of interbank lending and a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012958106
What is the role of monetary policy in a bubbly world? To address this question, we study an economy in which financial frictions limit the supply of assets. The ensuing scarcity generates a demand for ``unbacked" assets, i.e., assets that are backed only by the expectation of their future...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902889
In U.S. data 1981–2012, unsecured firm credit moves procyclically and tends to lead GDP, while secured firm credit is … acyclical; similarly, shocks to unsecured firm credit explain a far larger fraction of output fluctuations than shocks to … secured credit. In this paper we develop a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model in which unsecured firm credit arises …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904079
the credit channel via the financial accelerator mechanism. The results show that tax evasion is pro cyclical and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910934
This paper analyzes the effects of several policy instruments to mitigate financial bubbles generated in the banking sector. We augment a New Keynesian macroeconomic framework by endogenizing boundedly-rational expectations on asset values of loan portfolios and allow for interbank trading. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892165
institutional feature of the Italian credit market that generates a sharp discontinuity in the allocation of comparable firms into … credit risk categories. Using loan-level data, we show that during the expansionary phase of the cycle, banks relax lending … the cycle, the abrupt tightening of lending standards leads to the exclusion of substandard firms from credit. These firms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012936690