In this paper we discuss how to compare various (possibly misspecified) density forecast models using the Kullback-Leibler information criterion (KLIC) of a candidate density forecast model with respect to the true density. The KLIC differential between a pair of competing models is the...

We investigate the predictive performance of various classes of value-at-risk (VaR) models in several dimensions-unfiltered versus filtered VaR models, parametric versus nonparametric distributions, conventional versus extreme value distributions, and quantile regression versus inverting the...

The artificial neural network (ANN) test of Lee et al. (Journal of Econometrics 56, 269–290, 1993) uses the ability of the ANN activation functions in the hidden layer to detect neglected functionalmisspecification. As the estimation of the ANN model is often quite difficult, LWG...

The literature on excess return prediction has considered a wide array of estimation schemes, among them unrestricted and restricted regression coefficients. We consider bootstrap aggregation (bagging) to smooth parameter restrictions. Two types of restrictions are considered: positivity of the...

In this chapter we consider the “Regularization of Derivative Expectation Operator” (Rodeo) of Lafferty and Wasserman (2008) and propose a modified Rodeo algorithm for semiparametric single index models (SIMs) in big data environment with many regressors. The method assumes sparsity that...

This chapter examines the asymptotic properties of the Stein-type shrinkage combined (averaging) estimation of panel data models. We introduce a combined estimation when the fixed effects (FE) estimator is inconsistent due to endogeneity arising from the correlated common effects in the...