COVID-19 is a seismic shock the likes of which have not been seen in living memory. What makes it different? For one, it is a rolling combination of a global health pandemic and an economic crisis that is unfolding at an unprecedented pace. The impact is already devastating at both the human and...

The Kyrgyz Republic has experienced modest and volatile economic expansion since the economy bottomed out from the transition recession in 1995, when GDP amounted to about half of its pre-independence levels. As a result of structural reforms at the start of transition, the emergence of...

The strong economic performance of Sub-Saharan Africa’s resource-rich countries since the start of the 21st century has been celebrated as a return to more buoyant growth and renewed convergence with the advanced economies.Despite the recent progress in improving living standards and reducing...

This report reviews developments in Papua New Guinea (PNG) since independence, and looks at the issues relevant for saving and managing natural resources and resource induced volatility. These issues could serve as a useful basis for discussion of options the government of PNG could pursue as it...

This paper analyzes the determinants of the recovery ratios and survival times (time until default) for U. S. corporate bonds. We show that seniority, the type of industry in which the firm operates, and the type of restructuring attempted after default are the major determinants of the...

This paper computes the default probabilities implicit in the prices of Brady bonds of seven developing countries and examines the factors that determine the high cross-correlation of the probability paths. The term structure of U.S. interest rates and the ratio of long-term foreign debt to GDP,...

Uzbekistan's transition from planning to market started almost thirty years ago following its independence from the Soviet Union. For most of this period, economic modernization and transformation were stalled, with little change in institutions and policies from those prevailing at the time of...

COVID-19 is a seismic shock the likes of which have not been seen in living memory. What makes it different? For one, it is a rolling combination of a global health pandemic and an economic crisis that is unfolding at an unprecedented pace. The impact is already devastating at both the human and...

It has been widely acknowledged that while the classic Merton (1974) model of the risk structure of interest rates captures the impact of important factors affecting the prices of risky bonds, it cannot replicate the yield spreads observable in reality. In this paper we extend the valuation...

It has been widely acknowledged that while the classic Merton (1974) model of the risk structure of interest rates captures the impact of important factors affecting the prices of risky bonds, it cannot replicate the yield spreads observable in reality. In this paper we extend the valuation...