Predicting cycles in economic activity is one of the more challenging but important aspects of economic forecasting. This paper reports the results from estimation of binary probit models that predict the probability of an economy being in a recession using a variety of financial and real...

The aim of this study is to construct monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the shipping industry in Korea. The coincident and the leading indicators are computed using the generalized dynamic factor model. We use the production index of the water transport industry as the...