French economic activity is significantly affected by economic activity in the rest of the world. In recent years, the export performance of France relative to its own past and relative to a major trading partner, Germany, deteriorated. That deterioration seems related to the trend growth of...

This study applies to investment funds a novel framework which combines marginal probabilities of distress estimated from a structural credit risk model with the consistent information multivariate density optimization (CIMDO) methodology and the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM). The...

This study identifies the main shocks that cause fluctuations in French output and their channels of transmission. It uses a large-dimensional structural approximate dynamic factor model. There are three main findings. First, common shocks, especially demand shocks, which seem to originate from...

This paper reexamines some unsettled theoretical and empirical issues regarding the relationship between nominal exchange rates and interest rate differentials and provides a model for the behavior of exchange rates in the long run, where interest rates are determined in the bond market. The...

This paper examines the Chilean experience with capital controls and reviews studies on controls on capital inflows. Controls on Chile’s inflows had only a temporary impact in reducing specific inflows because they were affected by avoidance. There is some evidence that controls increased...

Since Taylor estimated a trade-off between inflation and output variance, it has been widely accepted that efforts to keep the inflation rate “too low and stable” will likely result in relatively larger output fluctuations. Following the generalized reduction in inflation variance in the...

The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model. Their out-of-sample forecasts are compared with those of simple Box-Jenkins models. The main findings are; forecasts that include the pre-announced inflation target...

This paper uses the classical (level) definition of business cycles to analyze the characteristics-duration, amplitude, steepness, and cumulative output movements-of the real GDP series of France, Germany, Italy, the rest of the euro area, and the United States. An index of concordance and its...