In the context of perfect foresight, intertemporal optimizing, and a cash-in-advance model, this paper studies the dynamics of an inconsistent exchange rate-based stabilization policy that fixes the exchange rate without an underlying fiscal adjustment to ensure that the exchange rate policy is...

This paper analyzes the relevance of external factors in average quarterly GDP growth for 1990-2006 in the seven largest Latin American countries (LAC7). Modeling the relationship between LAC7 GDP and several external factors, it is found that those factors account for a significant share of...

Using a sample of emerging markets that are integrated into global bond markets, we analyze the collapse and recovery phase of output collapses that coincide with systemic sudden stops, defined as periods of skyrocketing aggregate bond spreads and large capital flow reversals. Our findings...

We offer an alternative explanation for t he fall of Argentina`s Convertibility Program based on the country`s vulnerability to Sudden Stops in capital flows. Sudden Stops are typically accompanied by a substantial increase in the real exchange rate that wreaks havoc in countries that are...

At the time of writing there were widespread concerns about the health of the U. S. economy. There is conclusive evidence that the pace of growth has slowed, which has prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates on two occasions (a total of 100 basis points thus far). As usual, when faced...

This paper discusses the economic performance of Latin America in the last decade, paying special attention to growth and the financial sector. In particular, it shows that external factors, such as like U. S. interest rates and the business cycle, play a key role in capital inflows, investment,...

Latin America is volatile--about two to three times as volatile as the industrial economies. It is more volatile than any region other than Africa and the Middle East. Latin America`s access to international financial markets is sporadic, and often disappears just when it would be most valuable

The initial stages of exchange rate-based stabilizations have been generally characterized by a consumption boom, a deterioration of the trade balance and the current account, and an appreciation of the real exchange rate. It is only at the later stages that the economy falls into recession. Tax...