The aim of this paper is to understand what a recession means for individual consumers, and to model in a life-cycle framework how individuals respond to recessions. Our focus is on the sharp increase in savings rates that have been observed in the current and recent recessions. We show...

This paper builds a model of sovereign debt in which default risk, interest rates, and debt depend not only on current fundamentals but also on news about future fundamentals. News shocks affect equilibrium outcomes because they contain information about the likelihood that the government repays...

Out-of-sample forecasting tests of DSGE models against time-series benchmarks such as an unrestricted VAR are increasingly used to check a) the specification b) the forecasting capacity of these models. We carry out a Monte Carlo experiment on a widely-used DSGE model to investigate the power of...

"This paper provides evidence of a problem with the influential testing and assessment of Solow's (1956) growth model proposed by Mankiw et al. (1992) and a series of subsequent papers evaluating the latter. First, the assumption of a common rate of technical progress maintained by Mankiw et al....

The choice of an appropriate social discount rate for cost–benefit analysis of public projects has long been a contentious issue and subject to intense debate among economists. This debate has gained new impetus from the recent discussions on the economics of climate change. The purpose of...

This paper presents a theoretical model to analyze the effects of technology change on growth rates of income and human capital in the uncertain environments of technology. The uncertainty comes from two sources; the possibility of a technology advance and the characteristics of new...

This paper presents a theoretical model and empirical evidence to explain the observation that a country in which the level of technology approaches the technology frontier tends to rely more on technology creation than adoption, and to invest more in basic research than in development. The...

Um gesellschaftlichen Wandel und neue Regulierungsformen von Arbeit adäquat zu beschreiben, ist es notwendig, der Frage nachzugehen, wie sich Regulierung von Arbeit konstituiert, in welchen Formen sie vorfindbar ist und welchen Dynamiken sie ausgesetzt ist. In diesem Arbeitspapier wird eine...