The accuracy of U.N. population projections is examined. The goal is to measure the amount of uncertainty associated with past projections of the United Nations in order to provide a reaiistic measure of the uncertainty in the projection that the U.N. makes in the future. Various descriptive...

A data-driven optimal decomposition of time series with trend-cyclical and seasonal components as well as the estimation of derivatives of the trend-cyclical is considered. The time series is smoothed by locally weighted regression with polynomials and trigonometric functions as local...

We study the possibility of cartel formation among primary exporters who face an inelastic world demand for their exports. By constructing an appropriate infinitely repeated export game, we show that varying country sizes will pose difficulties in sustaining the collusive behaviour.

The more recent asset market literature on flexible exchange rates seems to share the opinion that it is not possible to treat the stock-flow interaction on the adjustment path to a new long-run equilibrium adequately in continuous time. The present paper discloses some severe inconsistencies...

We consider the problem of stabilising the income of a country, henceforth the borrower, which would always prefer a stable income to a random income with the same average, i.e. a country which is risk-averse. This would be appropriate for countries which are heavily reliant upon agricultural...

Querschnittsdaten aus benachbarten Raumgebieten, wie in der Regionalökonomie verwendet, weisen neben Heteroskedastie oft auch gegenseitige Abhängigkeiten auf. Die wechselseitige Beeinflussung wird in der raumstrukturellen Ökonometrie (Spatial Econometrics) meist explizit durch Autokorrelation...

Asymmetric information between lender and borrower is made responsible for financing constraints at the firm level which may influence real activity. In this paper a standard model of credit rationing due to adverse selection and adverse incentive effects is used to derive hypotheses on causes...

In der Literatur wurden verschiedene parametrische Modelle zur Analyse der Heteroskedastie in Zeitreihen von Finanzmarktdaten entwickelt. Eine Möglichkeit, die bedingte Volatilität nichtparametrisch zu erfassen, ist die Kernschätzung von bedingten Quantilen. In diesem Aufsatz werden einige...