Birru, Justin; Figlewski, Stephen - In: Journal of Financial Markets 15 (2012) 2, pp. 151-180
We examine the risk neutral probability density (RND) for the S&P 500 extracted from real-time bid and ask quotes for index options, under extreme market stress during the fall of 2008. The RND provides exceptional detail about investors' expectations as intraday volatility increased to a level...