This paper investigates whether an asymmetry is present in the Granger-causal relationship between output and a set of interest rates and their spreads, across expansionary and contractionary business cycle phases in post 1950 U.S. Non-structural VAR models of monthly industrial production and...

This paper looks at the time-series behavior of the real wage relative to that of productivity. Given an exogenous, nonstationary process for productivity, we use a simple model of dynamic labor demand to show that the real wage and the marginal product of labor will be cointegrated if the...

Inflation targeting (IT)--a policy framework that directly targets an explicit inflation goal has gained widespread attention recently as it has been adopted by several OECD countries. The paper examines the British inflation targeting experience since 1993 by focusing on the out-of- sample...