We argue for the use of cointegration and error correction analysis as a method to combine economic factors that are nonstationary with political factors that are stationary into a dynamic, empirical model of the evolution of public policy over long periods. The approach we develop is applied to...

Can an accrual budgeting system-a system in which budgetary spending authorizations to line ministries are formulated in accrual terms-serve the needs of good fiscal policy? If so, how must such a system be designed? What are the practical challenges which may arise in implementing sound fiscal...

We address the problem of how to investigate whether economics, or politics, or both, matter in the explanation of public policy. We first pose the problem in a particular context by uncovering a political business cycle (using Canadian data for 130 years) and by taking up the challenge to make...

This report presents an analysis of the strategy required to generate the required resources for investment in various services necessary to achieve the MDGs. The analysis attempts to quantify the fiscal space to finance the MDGs and identify the necessary fiscal reforms required to finance the...

In the last two decades of the XIX century Italy became an industrial country. Historians maintain that this process was affected by the action of some interest groups that pursued both state protection from competition and specific public expenditure programs. Starting from the economic...

A stagnating economy and a marked rise in unemployment prevented the attainment of a balanced public budget in 2002. Because of the persistent cyclical weakness and of the tax reform envisaged for 2004-05, a balanced budget position will be achieved only after 2007. In spite of a noticeable...

Contemporary policy debates on the macroeconomics of aid often concentrate on short run Dutch disease effects, ignoring the possible supply side impact of aid financed public expenditure. We present a simple model of aid and public expenditure in which public infrastructure generates an...

Starting from the secular fact of an increasing government's share, a retrospective on Adolph Wagner's writings seems worthwhile. A leading German economist of the Bismarck era, he first formulated the famous "law of increasing state activity" for industrializing nations. After analyzing his way...

This paper surveys the empirical research on fiscal institutions of the last three decades. The main results are: (i) Constitutional or statutory fiscal limitations have in most cases proved to be effective in cutting down public expenditure, revenue, and debt. (ii) Budgetary proce-dures matter...