Microfoundations of the euro’s effect on euro area trade hinge on the timing, the speed and the size of adjustment in trade costs. We estimate timing, speed and size of adjustment in trade costs for sectoral trade data. Our approach allows for sector specific impacts of trade costs on sectoral...

Compared with the broad supply of theoretical approaches towards systemic risk in (international) banking systems empirical contributions measuring its degree or potential triggering factors are rather scarce. Kwast and de Nicolo (2002) put systemic risk and (conditional) stock price...

The paper provides a comparison of alternative univariate time series models that are advocated for the analysis of seasonal data. Consumption and income series from (West-) Germany, United Kingdom, Japan and Sweden are investigated. The performance of competing models in forecasting is used to...

This article provides Monte Carlo evidence on the performance of general-to-specific and specific-to-general selection of explanatory variables in linear (auto)regressions. In small samples the former is markedly inefficient in terms of ex-ante forecasting performance.

This paper investigates if the euro's effect on euro-area trade differs across trade sectors and across country pairs, and to what degree heterogeneity matters for estimating the aggregate euro effect. Time-varying latent variables, which are specific to each sector in each country pair, control...

Examining investment behavior related to the Euro introduction, we address the relevance of different investment determinants. With the advent of the currency union two potential sources of portfolio reallocation can be distinguished: First, the diminishment of exchange rate risk and transaction...

According to the ’macroeconomic trilemma’ the ability of small economies to pursue an independent monetary policy is jointly determined by country specific foreign exchange (FX) rate flexibility and capital mobility. In particular, free floating economies should be able to isolate domestic...

A novel simulation based approach to unit root testing is proposed in this paper. The test is constructed from the distinct orders in probability of the OLS parameter estimates obtained from a spurious and an unbalanced regression, respectively. While the parameter estimate from a regression of...

Noting that many economic variables display occasional shifts in their second order moments, we investigate the performance of homogenous panel unit root tests in the presence of permanent volatility shifts. It is shown that in this case, panel unit root tests derived under time invariant...

Microfoundations of the euro's effect on euro area trade hinge on the timing, the speed and the size of adjustment in trade costs. We estimate timing, speed and size of adjustment in trade costs for sectoral trade data. Our approach allows for sector specific impacts of trade costs on sectoral...