In empirical macroeconomics, proxy structural vector autoregressive models (SVARs) have become a prominent path towards detecting monetary policy (MP) shocks. However, in practice, the merits of proxy SVARs depend on the relevance and exogeneity of the instrumental information employed. Our...

This dissertation consists of three independent research papers and contributes to the empirical analysis of the interaction between business and financial cycles from different perspectives. The first paper uses a non-linear multilevel dynamic factor model to better understand the changing...

In order to improve the dynamic assessment of financial market interdependencies, we develop a new Markov switching approach to multivariate volatility modelling. More specific, we take advantage of the flexible copula multivariate GARCH model of Lee and Long (2009), and allow state dependence...

To improve the dynamic assessment of risks of speculative assets, we apply a Markov switching MGARCH approach to portfolio forecasting. More specifically, we take advantage of the flexible Markov switching copula multivariate GARCH (MS-C-MGARCH) model of Fülle and Herwartz (2021). As an...