A comparison is presented of 93 studies that conducted tests of volatility-forecasting methods on a wide range of financial asset returns. The survey found that option-implied volatility provides more accurate forecasts than time-series models. Among the time-series models, no model is a clear...

The stylized facts found in the previous paper quot;Some Properties of Absolute Return, An Alternative Measure of Riskquot; by the same authors using daily Samp;P index data are explored using further data, stock indices from the Tokyo and Paris exchanges, a single stock from New York, four...

This paper applies recently developed unit root and cointegration models to determine the appropriate Granger causality relations between stock prices and exchange rates using recent Asian flu data. Coupled with impulse response functions, it is found that data from Japan and Thailand are in...

This paper analyzes the long-run relationship between gold and silver prices. The three main questions addressed are: the influence of a large bubble from 1979:9 to 1980:3 on the cointegration relationship, the extent to which by including error correction terms in a nonlinear way we can beat...

This paper re-examines the relationship between financial variables and real activity in a unified statistical framework. Using the methods of cointegration and separation. we characterize the long-run and short-run relationships between three sets of variables and then use the framework to...

Financial market volatility is an important input for investment, option pricing and financial market regulation. In this review article, we compare the volatility forecasting findings in 72 papers published and written in the last decade. This article is written for general readers in...

The notion of separation in cointegrated systems helps identifying possible sub-system structures that may reduce the complexity of larger systems by yielding a more parsimonous representation of the time series. In this paper we demonstrate that although the subsystem cointegration analysis in...

Let a(theta) represent the absolute value of the daily return (after subtraction of mean return) raised to the power theta, so that a(two) is just the return squared. Duncan Luce (Theory and Decision, 1980) using an axiomatic approach suggested that a(theta) was a suitable class of measures of...

This paper shows that the properties of nonlinear transformations of a fractionally integrated process depend strongly on whether the initial series is stationary or not. Transforming a stationary Gaussian I(d) process with d 0 leads to a long-memory process with the same or a smaller...