In their influential work on the consumption-wealth relationship, Lettau and Ludvigson found that while consumption responds to permanent changes in wealth in the expected manner, most changes in wealth are transitory with no effect on consumption. We investigate the robustness of these results...

This paper develops a new approach to change-point modeling that allows for an unknown number of change points in the observed sample. Our model assumes that regime durations have a Poisson distribution. The model approximately nests the two most common approaches: the time-varying parameter...

This paper discusses Bayesian inference in change-point models. Current approaches place a possibly hierarchical prior over a known number of change points. We show how two popular priors have some potentially undesirable properties, such as allocating excessive prior weight to change points...

Methods of monetary policy implementation continue to change. The level of reserve supply - scarce, abundant, or somewhere in between - has implications for the efficiency and effectiveness of an implementation regime. The money market events of September 2019 highlight the need for an...

[...]In this article, we provide new evidence of the importance ofthe coordination mechanism that banks use in their normalpayments activity to provide liquidity. We do so by firstoutlining the sources of funding for banks’ payments activity, thus highlighting the role of expected incoming...

In this paper, we develop a bivariate unobserved components model for inflation and unemployment. The unobserved components are trend inflation and the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). Our model also incorporates a time-varying Phillips curve and time-varying inflation...

This paper investigates the relationship between short term and long term in ation expectations in the US and the UK with a focus on iflation pass through (i.e. how changes in short term expectations affect long term expectations). An econometric methodology is used which allows us to uncover...

This paper investigates the relationship between short term and long term inflation expectations in the US and the UK with a focus on inflation pass through (i.e. how changes in short term expectations affect long term expectations). An econometric methodology is used which allows us to uncover...

This paper develops a new approach to change-point modelling that allows the number of change-points in the observed sample to be unknown. The model we develop assumes that regime durations have a Poisson distribution. It approximately nests the two most common approaches: the time-varying...

We develop Bayesian methods of analysis for a new class of Threshold Autoregressive models: Endogenous Delay Threshold. We apply our methods to the commonly used sunspot data data set and find strong evidence in favor of the EDTAR model over linear and tranditional threshold autoregressions.