This article investigates empirically short-term dynamics between headline and core measures of consumer price index and personal consumption expenditure inflation over three sample periods: 1959:1–1979:1, 1979:2–2001:2, and 1985:1–2007:2. Headline and core inflation measures are...

Using a VAR model that includes a survey measure of expected inflation, this article investigates the responses of expected inflation to temporary shocks to macroeconomic variables during three sample periods, 1953:1--1979:1, 1979:2--2001:1, and 1985:1--2007:1. Shocks to actual inflation,...

This article estimates a Taylor rule according to which the Federal Reserve is forward looking, focused on core inflation, and smoothes interest rates. Using the Greenbook inflation forecasts and the real-time output gap, the estimated policy rule predicts very well the actual path of the...

This article constructs an empirical measure of uncertainty about short-term inflation forecasts and finds the long bond rate to be positively correlated with this empirical measure over 1984Q1 to 2004Q3. The positive correlation suggests that an increase in uncertainty about short-term...

Richmond Fed Economist Yash P. Mehra and Research Associate Jon D. Petersen present evidence of a nonlinear relation between oil price changes and consumer spending. They assert that oil price increases have a negative effect on spending whereas oil price declines have no effect: The estimated...

In order to investigate the potential anti-inflationary consequences of acceleration of productivity, the output gap-based Phillips curve is augmented to include the cyclical markup and change in output gap. The markup allows for the short-term influence of productivity-induced decline in unit...

The empirical test of the output gap-based New Keynesian Phillips curve often has been implemented by estimating a hybrid specification that includes both lagged and future inflation and then by examining whether the estimated coefficient on future inflation is significantly larger than the one...

Consumer sentiment may predict future household spending, either because sentiment is an independent causal force or because it foreshadows current economic conditions. The empirical evidence we present favors the second interpretation. The evidence in previous research that favors the first...

Comparison of three survey measures of one-year-ahead CPI inflation- Livingston, Michigan, and Professional Forecasters-permits assessment of their accuracy, predictive content, and rationality. The author uses the test of Granger-causality to investigate predictive content and real-time data on...

Using real time estimates of output gaps or Greenbook forecasts of the unemployment rate, this article estimates Taylor-type policy rules that predict the actual behavior of the funds rate during two sample periods, 1968Q1 to 1979Q2 and 1979Q3 to 1994Q4. The inflation rate response coefficient...