With India''s GDP expanding at a rate above 8 percent in recent years, the debate about whether India is overheating revolves mainly about whether growth is above potential-that is, whether the economy is exceeding its ""speed limit."" This paper attempts to shed light on this debate by...

This Selected Issues paper examines how surges in global financial market volatility spill over to emerging market economies (EMs) including India. The results suggest that a surge in global financial market volatility is transmitted very strongly to key macroeconomic and financial variables of...

This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that India’s near-term growth outlook has improved, and the balance of risks is now more favorable, helped by increased political certainty, several positive policy actions, improved business confidence, and reduced external vulnerabilities. Growth...

This chapter discusses the impact of global recession on the working population and looks at the future of work in the global economy from a variety of angles. IMF economist Prakash Loungani leads off with an overview of the global jobs landscape and examines the reasons behind the slow recovery...

A New Keynesian model estimated for India yields valuable insights. Aggregate demand reacts to interest rate changes with a lag of at least three quarters, with inflation taking seven quarters to respond. Inflation is inertial and persistent when it sets in, irrespective of the source. Exchange...

This paper reviews the literature on the informal economy, focusing first on empirical findings and then on existing approaches to modeling informality within both partial and general equilibrium environments. We concentrate on labour and credit markets, since these tend to be most affected by...

Convergence and spillovers across countries and within countries are old, but recurrent policy concerns, and India is no exception to this rule. This paper examines convergence and spillovers across Indian states using non-stationary panel data techniques. Results on convergence among Indian...

This paper explores the Indian adjustment program of 1991/92 and its initial results. The contents include long-term growth trends for output, investment, and macroeconomic condition; education, labor employment, and poverty; growth, accumulation, and productivity; results of India-specific...

India has followed an idiosyncratic pattern of development, certainly compared with other fast-growing Asian economies. While the importance of services rather than manufacturing is widely noted, within manufacturing India has emphasized skill-intensive rather than laborintensive manufacturing,...

In the literature on exports and investment, most productive firms are seen to invest abroad. In the Helpman et al. (2004) model, costs of transportation play a critical role in the decision about whether to serve foreign customers by exporting, or by producing abroad. We consider the case of...