This paper provides a framework for evaluating the decision to enter a currency area, including the best timing for entry, and uses it to evaluate the assessment of the five tests for euro entry published by the U.K. Treasury in June 2003. The breadth and depth of its assessment is impressive by...

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF's leading economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium terms. It is a respected, one-stop, trusted resource offering remarkable insight, balance, and perspective to decision makers and policymakers worldwide....

The IMF conducted a diagnostic review of the financial system of the Kingdom of Eswatini and proposed a Technical Assistance Roadmap to support the authorities' detection of risks and vulnerabilities and to enhance capacity in financial sector oversight. The financial stability module focused on...

This paper studies the effect of the VAT threshold on firm growth in the UK, using exogenous variation over time in the threshold, combined with turnover bin fixed effects, for identification. We find robust evidence that annual growth in turnover slows by about 1 percentage point when firm...

We propose a novel approach to measure the dynamic macroeconomic effects of immigration on the destination country, combining the analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques. We distinguish the impact of immigration shocks in OECD countries from that of...

This paper presents Resilience and Sustainability (RST) contribution agreements finalized with four contributors between April 2023 and September 15, 2023. The concluded agreements provide for contributions in a total amount of about SDR 4.7 billion across the three RST accounts - the loan...

This paper studies the puzzling decline in labor force participation observed in the UK following the pandemic. Retirement and long-term sickness appear to be the main drivers, with chronic illness remaining a lingering distinctive factor vis-a-vis peer countries. While the government has...

The paper addresses the issue of weak business investment in the United Kingdom (UK) by analyzing aggregate investment trends in the UK and other G7 peers, and investment drivers for UK firms. Data show that business investment has been structurally low in the UK, and likely the key driver of...

The surge in energy prices due to Russia's war in Ukraine inflicted a sharp terms of trade shock on the UK economy. While energy prices have since declined, the future energy price path remains uncertain, with futures-implied prices substantially above their levels prior to October 2021, when...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the impact of the energy price shock on UK households and firms and describes the energy support measures introduced by the UK government. The paper also provides IMF staff's assessment of these measures and sets out some options to optimize the policy...