The accuracy of U.N. population projections is examined. The goal is to measure the amount of uncertainty associated with past projections of the United Nations in order to provide a reaiistic measure of the uncertainty in the projection that the U.N. makes in the future. Various descriptive...

We study the possibility of cartel formation among primary exporters who face an inelastic world demand for their exports. By constructing an appropriate infinitely repeated export game, we show that varying country sizes will pose difficulties in sustaining the collusive behaviour.

The more recent asset market literature on flexible exchange rates seems to share the opinion that it is not possible to treat the stock-flow interaction on the adjustment path to a new long-run equilibrium adequately in continuous time. The present paper discloses some severe inconsistencies...

We consider the problem of stabilising the income of a country, henceforth the borrower, which would always prefer a stable income to a random income with the same average, i.e. a country which is risk-averse. This would be appropriate for countries which are heavily reliant upon agricultural...

In der Literatur wurden verschiedene parametrische Modelle zur Analyse der Heteroskedastie in Zeitreihen von Finanzmarktdaten entwickelt. Eine Möglichkeit, die bedingte Volatilität nichtparametrisch zu erfassen, ist die Kernschätzung von bedingten Quantilen. In diesem Aufsatz werden einige...