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This paper develops a model for the forward and spot exchange rate which allows for the presence of a Markov switching risk premium in the forward market and considers the issue of testing the unbiased forward exchange rate (UFER) hypothesis. Using US/UK data, it is shown that the UFER...
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the spot rate. We use the surveys to decompose the bias into a protion attributable to the risk premium and a portion … attributable to systematic prediction errors. The survey data suggest that our findings of both unconditional and conditional bias …
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