We adopt an unobserved components time series model to extract financial cycles for the United States and the five largest euro area countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We find that credit, the credit-to-GDP ratio and house prices have medium-term cycles which share a few common statistical...

In this article, we have tested a linear Gaussian state space model and the kalman filter in testing ARMA(2,3) models of the natural logarithmic monthly market returns of the US 1838 bond debenture closed-end fund. The aim is to estimate expectations that arises from the interaction of...