The war in Ukraine and the subsequent increase in energy and other commodity prices has dampened the economic outlook. There are increased downside risks to economic activity and there is also considerable uncertainty around any economic projections and how they may evolve in the future. This...

In this paper, we explore the impact of recent interest rate increases on the Irish economy and chart out the potential impact using scenarios for the period 2023- 2025. We use the COSMO macroeconometric model of the Irish economy to test the impacts through credit markets and the real economy,...

The basic framework of the PIDS Annual Macroeconometric Model is presented in this paper. After outlining the general philosophy of the model, the discussion focuses on the production sector of the model in order to trace the manner by which macroeconomic policies affect relative prices and...

Macroeconometric models have proven to be a useful tool in analyzing the economy-wide or sector-specific effects of policy measures. Simulations using these models have enabled planners and policymakers to trace through the effects of proposed policy changes or external shocks as well as...

Criticism against large-scale macroeconometric models built in the tradition of the Cowles Commission approach began to mount in the late 1960s. These misgivings were subsequently reflected in the Lucas critique, Sims critique and disenchantment with the model's Keynesian foundations. In...

In this article, we demonstrate that a small degree of stochastic variation in the depreciation rate of capital can greatly reduce the comovement between hours worked and labor productivity in a neoclassical growth model. The depreciation rate is modeled as a Markov process to place a strict...

In this paper we develop a long run macroeconomic model for Austria to simulate the effects of aging on employment, output growth, and the solvency of the social security system. By disaggregating the population into six age cohorts and modelling sex specific participation rates for each cohort,...