We design an experiment to investigate the influence of announced future variations in interest rates and prices on consumption decisions. In an experimental implementation of the discounted utility model, the subjects learn the entire paths of inflation and interest rates prior to deciding on a...

In this paper we apply factor models proposed by Stock and Watson (1999) and VAR and ARIMA models to generate 12-month out of sample forecasts of Austrian HICP inflation and its subindices processed food, unprocessed food, energy, industrial goods and services price inflation. A sequential...

We use a factor-augmented VAR with time-varying parameters to study the transmission of monetary policy shocks and central bank information shocks associated with ECB announcements. We find time-variation in the volatilities of monetary policy shocks and information shocks and in the...

Can monetary policy stimulate consumption through inflation expectations? We study how US consumers revise inflation expectations and planned consumption in response to monetary policy shocks using VAR models, where we identify exogenous policy shocks with interest rate surprises around FOMC...