Experience from models such as SEER suggests that bank financial condition predict bank failures. However, it has been difficult to find a relationship between macroeconomic variables and bank failures. This paper shows ways in which simple time-series techniques can be used to forecast...

Empirical studies show that competition in the credit markets has important effects on the entry and growth of firms in nonfinancial industries. This paper explores the hypothesis that the availability of credit at the time of a firm’s founding has a profound effect on that firm’s nature. I...

I introduce the concept of hybrid intermediaries: financial conglomerates that control a multiplicity of entity types active in the "assembly line" process of modern financial intermediation, a system that has become known as shadow banking. The complex bank holding companies of today are the...