This text contains the autumn forecast 2014 of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich, released on 29 October 2014. The first part discusses recent economic developments in Switzerland and abroad, and presents the main forecast results across the various sectors of the economy....

This paper addresses the real-time versus ex-post properties of the output gap as quantified by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's multivariate (MV) filter, starting with the second quarter of 1997, when the current procedure was implemented. There are three sources of revisions of the output...

The "law and finance theory" predicts that the common law system provides the best basis for financial development and economic growth, followed by Scandinavian and German origin civil law and finally French origin civil law. Referring to a number of sceptical views, this paper argues that the...

The paper reconstructs the origins of the quantity theory of money and its applications. Against the background of the history of money, it is shown that the theory was flexible enough to adapt to institutional change and thus succeeded in maintaining its relevance. To this day, it is useful as...

The "law and finance theory" predicts that the common law system provides the best basis for financial development and economic growth, followed by Scandinavian and German origin civil law and finally French origin civil law. This paper summarises the key points of the theory as well as a number...

The finance-growth nexus is discussed, and a framework for empirical analysis is formulated. Based on data for 93 countries from 1960-1990, a growth equation is estimated. It includes the standard regressors as well as a new proxy for financial activity and interaction effects of the latter with...

Short-term forecasting methods joint issue with Économie et PrévisionThis issue is a special issue in two respects. First, all contributions deal with shortterm forecasting methods. Second and above all, this special issue results from an original and fruitful collaboration between two...

This text presents the latest economic forecast conducted by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at the ETH Zurich on 21 June 2013. After an introduction describing the starting points and crucial assumptions underlying the forecast, we summarise the key results for Switzerland. Subsequently, we...